The Impact of Heat Stress on Interpersonal Violence in Urban Tanzania

Climate change carries hidden social risks. This study examines how short-term heat stress affects household violence in urban Tanzania using nationally representative panel data linked with high-frequency climate indices using Generalized Estimating Equations. Results show that a one-unit rise in the monthly heat index increases the likelihood of violence by about 1.2 percentage points. The effect is consistent across models, persists with lagged exposure, and remains significant when correcting for attrition. Non-linear estimates reveal threshold effects, with risks increasing sharply above 74°F to 79°F. These findings extend the climate-violence debate by documenting household-level pathways in cities where heat acts as a psychosocial stressor rather than solely an economic shock. Vulnerability is greatest among larger families and in hotter neighborhoods. The study contributes to the economics of well-being by framing violence as a climate-related welfare loss. Policy responses should prioritize heat-sensitive housing, localized early-warning and support systems, and integration of social risks into adaptation planning.