How Hurricanes Drive Bird Displacement in Gulf Ecosystems Revealed by Deep Learning Species Distribution Model

Hurricanes invade and rapidly change coastal habitats with increasing frequency and intensity due to climate change. In areas affected by hurricanes, there is a cascade of immediate to long-term ecological impacts. Hurricane-related flooding can carry invasive wildlife and plant species into new regions, accelerating their spread. Birds connect multiple trophic levels of the food web and may worsen or mediate invasive species outbreaks. Understanding how hurricanes drive bird displacement can support the reserve planning for birds and native wildlife. This research employed deep learning models to delineate the biotic and abiotic niche for 332 bird species and produced fine-scale habitat suitability maps post-hurricanes. We found that how hurricanes drive birds’ displacement depends on long-term climate and sea level rise trajectories. Species’ vulnerabilities to storm surges vary among functional morphology groups and across hurricane seasons. Medium-sized, medium-long-winged birds, or Granivores, are more resilient to hurricane disturbance. Winter emerges as a critical bottleneck in maintaining structural habitat complexity, and prioritizing winter habitat quality, providing refugia adjacent to agricultural lands will likely yield disproportionate eco- logical benefits as hurricane intensity increases. Our research provided decision-makers with a toolset to respond proactively to the ecological impacts of extreme events and environmental change.