Will Electric Vehicles Reduce Cancer and Heart Disease Mortality?

The contribution of vehicle emissions to cancer and heart disease mortality in the US is seldom recognized in public policy. To estimate the potential for death reduction through reduced emissions, a least-squares regression model of major known and suspected risk factors was developed, accounting for collinearity among predictors. Data on daily kilometers driven in 822 urban US counties derived from GPS and cell phone movement in 2020 were matched to age-adjusted rates of cancer and heart disease mortality in 2021–2023, each separately for men and women, percent who smoke cigarettes, percent heavy alcohol use, ≤ 2.5PM air particulates, percent African American, inequality, and population density. The calculated regression coefficients of emissions and smoking were then set to zero separately. The predicted rates were converted to the number of deaths for each county and were summed. When the totals without emissions or smoking were summed and subtracted from the numbers that occurred, more than 600,000 deaths annually were found associated with vehicle kilometers and smoking, nearly evenly distributed between the two risk factors. Replacement of fossil fuel-powered vehicles with electric ones is likely to reduce premature deaths from cancer and heart disease.