Future of wetlands’ conservation: four alternative scenarios for 2050

Wetlands are complex ecosystems undergoing rapid and continuous changes resulting from a wide array of interrelated causes. Continuous, dynamic adaptation to an ever-changing situation is therefore essential, often through trial and error, given the ambiguity of these changes and their consequences. Under such circumstances, futures thinking provide a sense- and decision-making approach that helps to navigate volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous modern world. This article presents a custom-designed futures thinking analysis of the future of wetlands' conservation with three interrelated aims: to introduce futures thinking methodologies to the wetland community, to stimulate structured discussion on possible long-term trajectories grounded in observable trends, and to provide preliminary input for the design of adaptive interventions. Based on scanning for signal of change across environmental, social and economic domains, nine key trends shaping the future of wetlands' research, governance and management were identified and synthesised into a future matrix structured around two principal drivers of change: availability of public funding and the dominant societal approach to nature (anthropocentric versus ecocentric). Within the matrix four alternative scenarios for 2050 were developed, representing contrasting futures of wetlands' conservation. The results demonstrate the value of futures thinking for anticipating risks, revealing trade-offs and highlighting opportunities for proactive, value-aware conservation strategies. The proposed scenarios offer a flexible framework to support strategic dialogue, preparedness and intervention design in an increasingly uncertain conservation landscape.