Trends in Self-Reported Migraine or Frequent Headache in Spain between 2006 and 2023: The Role of Sociodemographic Factors

Introduction: Headache conditions impose a significant global socioeconomic burden; however, long-term trends in their prevalence remain underexplored. This study aimed to analyze the evolution in self-reported migraine or frequent headache (SR-M/FH) in Spain from 2006 to 2023, focusing on its relationship with demographic factors (sex, age, and social class) and the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods A repeated cross-sectional study using seven national health surveys in Spain (2006–2023; 37,429 − 41,929 participants) analyzed SR-M/FH adjusted by sex, age, social class, and education. Trends were tested with the Mann–Kendall method, and future estimates derived through modeling. Results SR-M/FH prevalence declined from 14.5% in 2006 to 10.8% in 2023, showing a negative, non-significant trend (total τ = − 0.62, p = 0.07; physician-diagnosed τ = − 0.33, p = 0.38). The S-curve model projected stabilization over the next decade, with total prevalence near 9.5% and diagnosed around 8%. The reduction was more evident among women, older adults, and individuals from lower socioeconomic groups. Prevalence was approximately 2.5-fold higher in women, peaked between 25–54 years, was lowest in the youngest (15–24) and oldest (> 75) groups, and decreased with higher social class and education. The 2020 data point, collected during the COVID-19 pandemic, deviated from the trend but was not a statistical outlier. Conclusion SR-M/FH prevalence showed a modest decline over the past 17 years in Spain, with forecasts suggesting stabilization. The reduction was more evident among women, older adults, and lower socioeconomic groups, indicating that demographic and social determinants may shape these temporal dynamics.