Empirical analysis of fan presence effects on match results in the Bundesliga

Recent research on the German Bundesliga has documented reductions in home advantage during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly throughout the spectator-free “ghost game” period. However, empirical evidence on the immediate post-pandemic phase remains limited. This study examines the 2021/22 season, during which stadium attendance gradually returned, to evaluate whether the reintroduction of supporters affected home advantage. The analysis draws on all league matches from 2017/18 to 2021/22 (N = 1,530) and applies regression models that incorporate a categorical variable differentiating stages of attendance regulation, including full attendance, partial capacity restrictions, and ghost games. The results indicate that the 2021/22 season features a statistically significant increase in home advantage compared to pre-pandemic seasons. This effect emerges despite an initial period of renewed capacity limits at the start of the 2021/22 campaign. Over the course of the season, the observed increase in home advantage gradually declines, even as spectator numbers rise and return to levels consistent with full stadium operation. Based on these patterns, the findings support the interpretation that psychological mechanisms underpin the relationship between fan presence and home advantage. Specifically, the data are consistent with the assumption that supporter attendance contributes to improved performance of home teams through mental or motivational channels rather than through physical determinants.