Forecast data of provincial carbon emissions in China from 2025 to 2035: based on ARIMA-BP model

Background: China is an important contributor to global carbon emissions. Accurately estimating carbon emissions is crucial for reducing carbon emissions in accordance with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and China's carbon neutrality strategy. Method: This study selected energy consumption data from Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021, calculated carbon emissions using the carbon emission factor method, and then predicted carbon emissions data for 2022-2035 using the ARIMA-BP model. Result: Using the ARIMA-BP model, this study predicted the provincial carbon emissions in China from 2025 to 2035 based on data from 2000 to 2024. The results showed that during this period, the carbon emissions of the three major industries all increased, with the secondary industry accounting for the highest proportion and the largest increase (690%); The emissions of each province are showing an upward trend; The energy consumption intensity shows a trend of "secondary industry>tertiary industry>primary industry" and has all decreased, with the secondary industry experiencing the most significant decline. The model prediction is reliable, providing data support and policy basis for China's carbon reduction. Discussion: This dataset can be used to describe the spatiotemporal evolution trend of carbon emissions in China. This study can provide policy basis and wisdom for China's carbon reduction efforts.