Spatial assessment of pest and disease vulnerability in smallholder farming systems using AHP and GIS

Pests and diseases pose critical challenges to agricultural productivity, particularly in smallholder agricultural systems of sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding and mapping vulnerability to these threats requires an integrated assessment of biophysical and land-use factors that influence pest and disease dynamics. Few studies combine Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for this purpose, despite their high potential. This study employs a combined Geographic Information System (GIS) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework to evaluate agricultural pest and disease vulnerability in Gwagwalada Area Council, Nigeria. Six key determinants—land use and cover, soil properties, temperature, moisture, and topography—were analyzed to construct a composite vulnerability index and spatial risk map. The results indicate that land use and land cover exert the greatest influence on vulnerability patterns, while temperature and soil moisture also play critical roles. Validation using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) confirmed the spatial accuracy of the derived vulnerability zones. The study demonstrates that integrating AHP with GIS provides a robust, participatory, and data-driven decision-support tool for sustainable pest and disease management. The findings highlight the importance of landscape-level monitoring and adaptive management to enhance agricultural resilience, promote sustainable intensification, and safeguard food security in vulnerable farming regions.