A Stress-Budget Framework for Capacity Withholding: Congestion Screening and Feasibility Frontiers via DC–OPF

Strategic capacity withholding can intensify transmission congestion, butinfeasible DC–OPF outcomes can prevent like-for-like comparisons across scenarios. Thispaper proposes a reproducible DC–OPF screening workflow that maps feasibility andcongestion sensitivity under controlled demand scaling (λ) and thermal-limit tightening (α)for four withholding families: CW0, economic withholding (ECW), physical withholding(FCW), and combined withholding (CCW). The workflow is demonstrated on a compact5-bus benchmark (multi-hour feasibility screening) and on the IEEE 57-bus system withactivated branch limits, using the 2022 Turkish hourly load shape and daily peak-hoursnapshots. Across both systems, feasibility deteriorates as the stress budget is consumed.ECW behaves similarly to CW0, while FCW and CCW drive most infeasibility andincrease utilisation of the most stressed corridors. The resulting feasibility frontierdelineates an admissible region for scenario-comparable market-power assessments underbinding network constraints.