Decarbonizing China’s Residential Heating Sector: Harvesting Waste Heat

Heating remains a global sustainability challenge due to its high energy and carbon intensity. While northern Chinese cities benefit from fossil-fuel-based district heating infrastructure, southern cities largely depend on inefficient household heating. We present a nationwide, high-resolution analysis of the feasibility, costs, and benefits of integrating waste heat from 4,360 industrial and energy plants into district heating across 339 cities. Combining plant-level spatiotemporal matching with lifecycle cost–benefit analysis under varying carbon prices and climate scenarios, results show that waste heat can meet up to 92% of urban heating demand at levelized costs of 11–29 CNY GJ⁻¹ in existing district heating (DH) provinces and 11–36 CNY GJ⁻¹ elsewhere. Prioritizing waste heat from nuclear power plants costs less and avoids 325–361 Mt CO₂e annually. Our results identify waste heat as a scalable and sustainable residential heating solution in China and propose equitable and low-carbon heating transition pathways globally.