Climate Change Impact on Egypt's Wind Energy Future: A CMIP6-Based Assessment of Power Output

Egypt has the capacity to generate substantial energy from renewable sources, particularly wind power. Egypt has invested heavily in wind farms and aims to further increase the share of wind energy in its overall energy portfolio. This made it crucial to evaluate the effects of climate change on future wind energy production. This study employed Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 to project wind speed and temperature, which were used to simulate power output from nine wind turbines across Egypt under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3–7.0, and 5-8.5. EC-Earth3-Veg, EC-Earth3, and CESM2-WACCM GCMs were selected as the best-performing against ERA5 data in the historical period using the robust statistical metric Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE). The best GCMs were bias corrected using the Quantile Mapping technique. The performance of nine different wind turbine models (T1–T9) was evaluated, confirming that T1 and T2 maintained the highest capacity ratios across historical conditions, reaching maximums of 68.0–76.5% and 59.5–68%, respectively. Meteorological projections indicated a global warming trend and a decrease in mean wind speed by 2100; notably, SSP5-8.5 projects the highest mean temperature (28°C) and the lowest mean wind speed (3.8 m/sec). Future projections for T1 and T2 indicate a positive power increase in key locations, such as Ras Gareb and the South of Egypt, under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. These findings are crucial for energy planners and policymakers, providing essential data to enhance the resilience and strategic development of Egypt's wind energy sector under a changing climate.