Climate-driven impacts in renewable resources alter green hydrogen supply

The large-scale deployment of variable renewable energy is increasingly coupling the climate and energy sectors, yet the potential impacts of climate change on renewable-based green hydrogen production remain poorly understood. Here we combine bottom-up optimization-based modeling with machine-learning algorithms to assess global grid-level green hydrogen supply. We find that, under mid-century climate and technology trajectories, mean green hydrogen costs are projected to fall below US$1.5 kgH2-1 in around one third of representative countries worldwide. Regions exhibit pronounced heterogeneity in climate-induced impacts on green hydrogen production costs (ranging from -25% to +50%), with wind-related climatic drivers exerting the dominant influence, particularly where wind and solar resources are strongly complementary. More than 20% of planned near-term green hydrogen projects are exposed to a risk of cost escalation. Our results highlight an urgent need to integrate long-term climate impacts into the planning of green hydrogen projects.