Characterising Surface Discrepancies and Vertical Coherence of Ocean Temperature Anomalies in CMIP6 HighResMIP During ENSO Events
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Considering the widespread implications of El Ni\ no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global and regional climate through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections, understanding its changing inter-annual dynamics in a warming climate is crucial. Evaluating the ability of high-resolution climate models to simulate the spatio-temporal characteristics and underlying dynamics of ENSO is essential for improving future projections. In this study, we review and evaluate ENSO representation in several high-resolution coupled climate model simulations from the CMIP6 HighResMIP project, along with two atmosphere-forced ocean-only simulations, focusing on the ability of climate models to represent central equatorial Pacific warming and cooling. We assess the spatio-temporal characteristics of surface and subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that define ENSO events and compare model outputs with observations. We find good agreement in the timing, vertical structure, and coherence of surface and subsurface temperature anomalies between the forced-ocean simulations and observations, particularly in strong ENSO years. On the contrary, the coupled models project weaker eastern Pacific anomalies and relatively stronger central-basin contributions; however, substantial inter-model diversity remains in both spatial patterns and intensity. Furthermore, we highlight key shortcomings and discuss potential hypotheses that may explain the observed model diversity in simulating ENSO-related spatio-temporal characteristics.
