An Integrated Moderation Model of Climate Change Risk Perception and Psychological Distress: The Roles of Self-Regulation, Resilience, and Self-Efficacy

Background: Climate change is increasingly recognized as a serious threat to both physical and mental health in the present era. However, there remains a need for research specifically addressing the psychological effects of climate change on mental health. This study examined the correlation between climate change risk perception and psychological distress among emerging adults in Egypt. It also focused on the moderating roles of self-regulation, resilience, and self-efficacy, as well as gender differences, within the framework of an integrative model that conceptualizes these three variables as complementary psychological resources. Methods: A cross-sectional correlational method was conducted with 2,065 undergraduate students at Cairo University during the first semester of 2024. All participants of men and women completed validated Arabic versions of standardized psychological scales. Descriptive statistics and preliminary analyses, including tests for data bias were performed in SPSS (v.25), and structural equation modeling in AMOS (v.24) was used to test direct, interaction, and higher-order moderation effects between the moderating variables. Results: Climate change risk perception significantly correlated to psychological distress. Self-regulation and resilience consistently weakened this relationship, indicating their protective roles, while self-efficacy was unexpectedly associated with higher levels of distress. Significant interaction effects emerged primarily among men, with complex three-way interactions varying by gender, whereas the four-way interaction was not significant in both genders. Conclusions: The findings demonstrate the utility of an integrative model in reflecting gender-based differences in psychological responses to climate change. They also suggest that psychological resources are not enough when considered together, they remain independently important. Future research should address broader contextual and structural factors in the Egyptian culture. This study contributes to testing gendered moderation effects which reinforce cross-cultural studies, and provides actionable implications for education, psychosocial support, and policy development.