Structural Breaks and Growth Trajectories in Potato Production: A 30-Year Statistical Analysis from Ayodhya Division, Eastern Uttar Pradesh

Potato farming plays an important role in the rural economy of Eastern Uttar Pradesh, especially in the Ayodhya Division. It supports local diets, provides income to farming households and depends mainly on irrigation and cold storage. This study examines how the potato farming scenario has changed over the period 1993-94 to 2022-23 and identifies associations, structural shifts, and key factors behind changes across five key variables: cultivated area, total production, productivity, irrigated area, and no. of cold storage. It also helps to understand the long-term changes and their relation to the 2014 policy impact. Time-series data from UPDES,2024, were analysed using compound and linear growth models. To understand the different patterns of data, eight functional forms were tested. Correlation analysis was used to study the association between variables. Structural breaks were identified using the Chow test. The study period was divided into two sub-periods based on the Uttar Pradesh Potato Development Policy-2014. The first period (1993-94 to 2013-14) showed a negative growth in both cultivated and irrigated area (CGR: -0.81% and -0.98%; p < 0.05). After 2014, the situation improved sharply. Production and yield show significant, strong positive growth (CGR: 4.38% and 2.87%; p < 0.01). Productivity is the key factor of production growth (r = 0.97; p < 0.01). Cultivated area was significantly associated with irrigation (r = 0.97; p < 0.01). The quintic model was best fitted (R²: 0.60-0.77). The Chow test showed clear structural breaks in area, production and irrigation (F > 6.5; p < 0.01) around 2014, confirming Uttar Pradesh Potato Development policy impact. The study shows that yield have negative to positive growth rates before and after the introduction of the potato development policy 2014. The association shows that better irrigation and expanded cold storage have shaped potato production in the study area. Understanding these patterns can help the government to better inform policy and guide future planning to maintain positive growth and improve farmer income in Eastern Uttar Pradesh.