Forecast Scenarios for Climate Change in the Northern Hemisphere

Anthropogenic Global Warming is most probably the main cause of Climate Change. Nevertheless, several authors indicated the solar activity and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation variation as potential additional forcing. This article considers the amplification due to the solar radiation and to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation’s variation, via sea ice cover albedo feedback in the Arctic regions, as forcing Climate Change in complement to the Anthropogenic Global Warming.A physical model, using the sunspot number count and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index as inputs, simulates the average global temperature anomaly and the Arctic Sea Ice Extension for the past twelve centuries. This model represents an innovative progress in understanding how existing studies on Arctic Sea ice’s albedo feedback can help complement the Anthropogenic Global Warming models, thus helping in defining more precise models for future Climate Change.In addition, the North Atlantic Oscillation index across 1,200 years is determined and, through its correlation with temperature anomaly, the climatic history of Europe, North America, Arctic and Mediterranean regions is modelled. The results are then compared with benchmarks from literature, to evaluate their level of accuracy in simulating the historical data.Forecast up to 2160 is provided, according to four different scenarios for the solar activity. Indeed, the main scope of this article is, more than benchmarking the model versus historical records, to provide a climatic and meteorological overview of the weather patterns which should prevail in the next decades.Therefore, a specific focus is paid to the “hidden” aspects which can, nevertheless, be inferred indirectly from the graphics, especially the effects of negative North Atlantic Oscillation on jet stream’s waviness and, consequently on storminess and on alternance of cold spells with heat waves, especially over the Mediterranean region.For purpose of simplicity, the model does not consider the Anthropogenic Global Warming. Nevertheless, the natural forcing described in this article shall be considered complementary to the Anthropogenic Global Warming effects. Manmade forcing will be included in a future model to be developed by the author.