Urbanization, population dynamics and Water Scarcity in post war Tigray: Challenges and Implications

Post-conflict Tigray embodies a dangerous intersection between rapid urbanization, mass displacement and extreme resource scarcity, as highlighted by the situation in Mekelle. This study adopts descriptive and exploratory design research design to examine the combined effect of demographic changes, urban growth and conflict-related infrastructure damage. Through a mixed-methods design, the study compares conditions prewar in addition to post-war using quantitative and qualitative techniques. A stratified random sample of 400 respondents which is 200 urban residents and 200 internal displaced peoples were engaged for a well-structured survey as well as 40 Key Informants and 40 FGD participants analyzed qualitatively. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression analysis in SPSS and qualitative interviews with Focused Group Discussions, based on thematic analysis that was triangulated with the secondary data obtained from government offices, humanitarian agencies as well as pre-war records. Findings show that extensive damage to pumping stations, distribution networks, and municipal infrastructure has caused Mekelle's pre-war water supply, which was already below national standards, to drastically decline. The disparity between supply and demand has grown as per capita water access has drastically decreased. According to regression analysis also shows strong correlations between infrastructure damage, decreased service reliability, and the intensity of displacement. Qualitative data also demonstrates how fast urban growth has changed household structures, undermined traditional community networks. The triangulated results show that Tigray's post-war urbanization is marked by worsening resource scarcity, disjointed social structures, and overburdened institutions. According to the study's findings, integrated urban planning, water infrastructure restoration, improved governance, and community-centered resilience techniques are all necessary for a sustainable recovery.