Intergenerational Financial Dependence, Perceived Fertility Benefits, and Low Fertility Intentions: Empirical Evidence from CFPS Data

Maintaining an appropriate fertility level and population size is essential for Chinese-style modernization. Achieving this objective requires effectively addressing the current severe issue of low fertility intentions. Drawing on data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this paper examines the impact of intergenerational financial dependence on individuals’ fertility intentions. The results indicate that intergenerational financial dependence significantly reduces fertility intention. This conclusion remains robust after addressing endogeneity through instrumental variable methods and treatment effect models, and conducting a series of additional robustness tests. Mechanism tests indicate that the negative effect of intergenerational financial dependence on fertility intention is achieved by reducing perceived fertility benefits. The negative effect of intergenerational financial dependence on fertility intentions is primarily exerted on disadvantaged groups in market competition, such as non-Party members, low-income individuals, and those with low educational attainment. Furthermore, this negative effect is mainly driven by active intergenerational financial dependence. Overall, the findings of this paper explain the phenomenon of low fertility intentions from the perspective of perceived benefits.