Time to Failure Among Stroke Patients in Jigjiga, Ethiopia: An Application of Bayesian Accelerated Failure Time

Stroke, a global health issue causing cerebrovascular conditions, affects millions annually, particularly in developing countries like Ethiopia, due to lifestyle changes, urbanization, and risk factors. The study examines the time to failure in stroke patients at Sheik Hassan Yabare Comprehensive Specialized Hospital in Ethiopia, highlighting the importance of understanding factors influencing survival times for improved patient outcomes. A retrospective study at Sheik Hassan Yabare Comprehensive Specialized Hospital analyzed stroke patients using Kaplan-Meier plots, the long-rank test, the Cox proportional hazards model, and the Accelerated Failure Time model. Akaike's Information Criterion was used to compare the effectiveness of models, and the Bayesian Accelerated Failure Time model was employed to identify factors affecting the time to failure of strokes. The study involved 353 stroke patients, with 26.6% female and 73.4% male. Male patients had a lower mortality rate of 26.3% compared to females at 42.6%. The majority of patients were from urban areas, with a mortality rate of 51.3% in rural areas and 19.8% in urban areas. The age distribution was categorized into three groups: 18–48, 49–65, and > 65, with corresponding death proportions of 21.6%, 18.9%, and 24.8%, respectively. Ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes had a combined mortality rate of 55.5%. A significant percentage of hypertension patients were censored, with 149 (80.5%) being censored and 36 (19.5%) experiencing death. The median estimated survival time for stroke patients was 48 days. Diabetes was the most effective variable related to patient survival, with a significant positive coefficient. Other factors, such as habit, hypertension, and cerebral vascularization failure, are less impactful.