Bridging Local Decisions and Regional Forest Strategies under Climate Risks: A Flexibility-Based Optimization Framework

Context: While the management of forests at a regional level takes into account different forest types and management objectives, the potential effects of projected climate impacts at a sub-regional scale remain largely unexplored. Aims: To better support the strategic planning of management, we address the critical challenge of reconciling regional strategies with site specific constraints. Methods: We considered two climate scenarios and various levels of timber-damage risk to evaluate sub-regional management alternatives, their robustness, and the impact on economic objectives for the massive Landes de Gascogne Forest.We then used a process-based model to simulate the response of pine plantations to different management regimes and climate conditions downscaled to a resolution of 8*8 kilometers. Based on these simulated data, we developed a multi-objective optimization model to identify Pareto optimal allocation of management regimes. We explored how allocation strategies may optimize forest carbon balance and the number of possible management options at the regional level, referred to as management flexibility. We further investigated the trade-offs between carbon exportation, carbon sequestration, and management flexibility under different climate scenarios, periods, and risk attitudes. Results: Our findings revealed that under more restrictive climate scenarios, regional provisions depend on the capacity of management regimes to mitigate risk. Conclusion: This flexibility-based optimization framework highlights critical adaptation strategies, bridging the gap between local decision-making and regional objectives, and informing cost-effective, climate-compatible planning.