The determinants of forest area in Brazil: U-shaped relationship for GDP per capita and for value of agricultural production per hectare

We evaluate the impact of gross domestic product per capita (GDPC), the value of agricultural production (VAP), and the value of agricultural production per hectare (VAPH) on the forest area in Brazil by considering annual time series data ranging from 1990 to 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag approach is used to estimate our long-run elasticities. The increase in the value of agricultural production reduces forest area in the long-run. However, the value of agricultural production per hectare and the gross domestic product per capita both have a U-shaped relationship with forest area. Indeed, with an increase in the VAPH (resp. GDPC), forest area decreases, then after a threshold point begins to increase. In Brazil, deforestation can be reversed by continuous economic growth accompanied by more propagation of environmental education within the population. Also, agricultural green technologies, as aeroponics for vegetable culture or smart agriculture, should be encouraged through subsidies or advantageous credits, as they increase the VAPH. Jel classification: C32; O44; 054;Q15.