Simulating chronic wasting disease spread in California after the initial detection
Discuss this preprint
Start a discussion What are Sciety discussions?Listed in
This article is not in any list yet, why not save it to one of your lists.Abstract
Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is a prion-induced spongiform encephalopathy affecting cervids and leading to neurological deterioration and death. First detected in Colorado in the 1960s, it has since spread across North America, generating important ecological and socio-economic impacts. Its recent detection in previously considered CWD-free California has increased the need for intensified surveillance. In this study we develop an agent-based model referred to as “CalCWD” to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of CWD in California's mule deer populations. The model incorporates demography, social behavior, migrations, environmental conditions, and epidemiological dynamics using a SEIR framework, with transmission via within-group contact, environmental prions, and infectious carcasses. Simulations assessed spread risk over three years starting from detected cases in Inyo and Madera counties. Results indicate that the Inyo outbreak, likely affecting a migratory population, poses higher spread risk, while the Madera outbreak, likely involving a more resident population, spreads more slowly, with a mean spread velocity of 6.7 km/year. The model also identifies Benton and Mono valleys as potential pathways for the disease spread between California and Nevada, highlighting them as priority areas for increased surveillance. Overall, CalCWD provides valuable decision support tool to gather insights into CWD dynamics to inform risk-based surveillance and management strategies with potential application to other diseases, regions and cervid species.
