Quantifying Burdur Lake Shrinkage (2018–2025): Trend Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification with Sentinel-2 Imagery and Monte Carlo

Burdur Lake, a Ramsar site in Turkey, exemplifies the global crisis of shrinking endorheic lakes under anthropogenic and climatic pressures. This study quantifies its surface area decline from 2018 to 2025 using Sentinel-2 imagery (10 m resolution), revealing a median shrinkage rate of -1.64 km²/year (95% CI: -1.83 to -1.47 km²/year), totaling 11.59 km². A Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) framework, integrated with the non-parametric Sen’s Slope estimator, propagates classification uncertainty (± 1%, validated at 98–99% accuracy), addressing a common gap in remote sensing time-series analysis. Adaptive Otsu thresholding outperformed conventional zero-thresholding (McNemar test, p < 0.05), ensuring reliable water-land delineation in this dynamic, saline basin. The decline, driven by dams and groundwater abstraction, mirrors trends in lakes like Urmia and Aral Sea, affecting biodiversity, including the endangered White-headed Duck. These findings provide a baseline for policy interventions, such as revised reservoir management and irrigation optimization to restore hydrological balance. This methodology offers an approach for monitoring lake dynamics, supporting water management and ecological conservation.