Rising Heatwaves and Their Implications for China’s Solar Power and Carbon Neutrality Goals

The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events (EHEs) are rising globally, yet their impacts on photovoltaic (PV) power generation—crucial for achieving carbon neutrality—remain poorly quantified. Here, we use high-resolution simulations of solar radiation and its controlling factors to estimate summer PV power losses induced by EHEs across China at five-year intervals from 2015 to 2060. Results show that by 2030 and 2060, global horizontal irradiance and the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves will be substantially higher in Xinjiang, central and western Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia than in other regions, displaying a fluctuating but overall upward trend. In these key solar-rich areas, EHEs are projected to cause PV power losses exceeding 0.14 GW in absolute terms and 13% in relative terms by 2030 and 2060. At the national scale, summer PV power losses increase markedly from 2015 to 2060, reaching up to 174% and 79% of the planned annual installed capacity by 2030 and 2060, respectively—posing a serious challenge to China’s dual-carbon goals if greenhouse gas emissions are not effectively controlled. Although clouds and aerosols can partially cool surface temperature and attenuate radiation, their mitigating effects remain limited under the predominantly clear-sky, clean-air conditions of these critical PV regions.