Simulated Effect of Agroforestry Shading on Robusta Coffee (Coffea canephora) Suitability Under Climate Change Scenarios in Uganda

Climate change is projected to affect coffee suitability in worldwide, yet the potential of Coffee Agroforestry Systems (CAFS) as a landscape-level adaptation strategy remains underexplored. This study assessed the effectiveness of CAFS in moderating climate impacts on coffee suitability. The objectives were: (1) to model current coffee suitability; (2) to project changes in suitability under future climate scenarios; and (3) to evaluate the influence of agroforestry on coffee suitability under projected conditions. Using a MaxEnt model, we applied agroforestry adjustments by reducing maximum temperature (T max ) 3°C and increasing minimum temperature (T min ) by 1°C. Two scenarios were modeled: (i) a no-agroforestry scenario using unadjusted climate variables, and (ii) an agroforestry scenario using temperature-adjusted variables. The models performed well (AUC = 0.75). Under SSP2–4.5, 14.7% of modeled areas were projected to lose suitability, 32.3% were stable, and 52.9% gained suitability—yielding a net gain of 38.2%. Under SSP5–8.5, 16.5% of areas lost suitability, 49.8% remained unchanged, and 33.7% gained, resulting in a net improvement of 17.2%. This study provides quantitative evidence of the adaptive potential of CAFS and highlights the need for integrated approaches to safeguard C. canephora under future climate change.