Economic and environmental spillovers decrease the benefits of upscaling biochemicals and biobased plastics in the European Union

Upscaling biochemicals and biobased plastics offers the EU27 a strategic pathway to advance environmental goals while boosting economic growth and competitiveness. Using a global economic model, this study evaluates policies aimed at increasing the share of biochemicals and biobased plastics to 15% of the total chemicals and plastics production in each EU27 member state by 2040. Policy costs range between 0.39–0.84% of the EU27 gross domestic product (GDP). Results highlight significant synergies—such as defossilization of chemicals and plastics sectors, up to 2 million new bioeconomy jobs, and increased sectoral value-added ($8–12 million)—alongside key trade-offs, including GDP reductions (up to -0.9%), higher biomass demand (2.1–2.3%), rising greenhouse gas intensity, and higher plastic accumulation potentials. Effective transitions should be prioritised in member states facing lower implementation costs and will require a mix of targeted subsidies, stricter fossil-based material regulations, larger use of secondary and discarded biomass, and improved biodegradability in the open environment of (biobased) products.