Narrative and quantitative analysis of democratic principles in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Although climate action is highly intertwined with governance structures, climate policy modelling science has been argued to insufficiently reflect political processes. We analyse the evolution of democratic governance embedded in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are heavily underpinning modelling studies. Using the Narrative Policy Framework in the SSPs storylines, we find underrepresentation of narratives explicitly centring on democratic principles such as participation, accountability, and justice, despite their importance in envisioning legitimate and inclusive transitions. An evaluation of quantitative indicators within the SSP framework under the same democratic principles shows divergence from the patterns implied by the storylines. Finally, analysis of scenarios assessed in the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows that regions scoring high in democracy-related indicators tend to perform well in mitigation, aligning with empirical evidence. These findings highlight opportunities to enhance the SSP framework to inter alia more adequately incorporate political processes.