From Fault Lines to Fault Tolerance : Earthquake Reliability Index for Energy Facilities in Seismic Regions

Electricity is a fundamental necessity in contemporary societal infrastructures, and its uninterrupted supply is of paramount importance. Electrical energy plays a crucial role in sustaining modern life and facilitating comprehensive post-disaster recovery processes. Power generation facilities, as essential components of energy infrastructure, are vital not only for maintaining daily operational continuity but also for executing life-saving interventions and supporting societal rehabilitation in the aftermath of natural disasters. In this context, systematically assessing the seismic risks of power generation facilities is crucial for ensuring energy supply security during emergency scenarios and for integrating strategic risk mitigation approaches into disaster planning frameworks. Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters, profoundly impacting critical infrastructure and generating extensive, long-lasting economic and social repercussions. The Marmara Region, characterized by active seismic fault lines, high population density, significant industrial production, and substantial energy consumption, holds strategic infrastructural significance. This study conducted a comprehensive seismic risk analysis of power generation facilities in the Marmara Region and introduced a novel Earthquake Reliability Index to assess the structural resilience of these critical infrastructure plants before a potential major seismic event. The analysis was grounded in 17 meticulously selected criteria, developed through expert consultations with 10 specialized professionals. Recognizing the inherent uncertainties in the dataset, fuzzy logic-based methodological approaches were systematically employed. The analysis was executed using QROF-TOPSIS, a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach. The results were subsequently compared with those obtained from Global AHP-TOPSIS and Neutrosophic AHP-TOPSIS methodological frameworks. The findings extended beyond conventional earthquake risk assessment methodologies, offering substantial contributions to energy security and post-disaster recovery strategies. The proposed methodology provided a systematic and data-driven approach for policymakers, infrastructure planners, and energy sector stakeholders to develop resilience-oriented strategic interventions.