Food Acquisition Strategies and Poverty Transitions in Post-Conflict Mali: Evidence from Pseudo-Panel Analysis

This study examines how different household food acquisition strategies influence poverty dynamics in post-conflict Mali, using nationally representative data from the “ Enquête Modulaire Permanente auprès des Ménages (EMOP)” collected between 2013 and 2021. A pseudo-panel was constructed from repeated cross-sectional EMOP data, and multinomial logit models, survival analysis, and Cox proportional hazards models were employed to assess poverty entry, exit, and duration outcomes across various food acquisition strategies. Findings reveal high poverty rates, with 81.9% of households facing food poverty and 71.9% experiencing multidimensional poverty. Although the majority of households (71.5%) rely on market-based food strategies, these do not necessarily enhance poverty mobility. Subsistence and mixed strategies, while associated with an increased initial risk of falling into poverty, significantly improve the likelihood of sustained poverty exit over time. Gift-based strategies, used by a small share (0.9%) are linked to faster poverty escapes. Female-headed households, despite higher vulnerability to monetary poverty, exhibit stronger rates of poverty exit. The results challenge traditional livelihood diversification theories by suggesting that household strategies in fragile settings are shaped more by adaptive responses to institutional breakdown than by optimization logic. Effective post-conflict interventions should consider the varying short- and long-term impacts of food strategies and address gender-specific poverty pathways when designing social protection programs. JEL Classification: D12, I32, O12, Q18, C41, C25