Uncertainty Analysis Supports Prioritization of Greenhouse Gas Inventory Improvement in Indonesia’s Livestock Sector

Accurate estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the livestock sector is essential for informing climate policies and fulfilling international reporting obligations. However, uncertainties in emission factors and activity data can significantly affect the accuracy of national GHG inventories. This study conducts a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of GHG emissions from Indonesia’s cattle sector between 1994 and 2022 calculated using a Tier 2 approach and Monte Carlo simulation based on the IPCC 2019 guidelines. The cattle production systems assessed were intensive, semi-intensive and extensive systems. The analysis covers three major emission sources: enteric methane (CH₄), methane and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from manure management (including deposit on pasture). Results show that uncertainty levels have increased over time, with uncertainty of enteric fermentation – the largest emission source – increasing from ca. ±15 for 1994 to ± 20% for 2022. This increase was mainly due to the rising share of cattle in the intensive system. Although uncertainties of other emission sources were higher, ranging between ± 36% and ± 104% for different sources in different years, their contributions to total emission uncertainty were limited because of the small proportion of total emissions from these sources. Uncertainty of key parameters in the intensive system, such as the enteric methane conversion factor, feed digestibility, liveweight, and proportions of manure managed in different systems, had the greatest contributions to overall inventory uncertainty. To improve inventory accuracy, the study emphasizes the need for improved data availability and quality, especially for intensive production systems. Strengthening national capacity to monitor animal performance, feed characteristics, and manure handling will significantly reduce uncertainty in future inventories. These improvements are crucial for enhancing accuracy and credibility in Indonesia’s climate reporting in the livestock sector.