The demographic, temporal, and regional dynamics of loneliness in long-term care in New Zealand: A secondary data analysis

Objective(s) The study aims to explore factors related to loneliness, its geographic distribution, and changes in its prevalence over time in long-term care facilities in New Zealand. Methods This study represents secondary data analysis of repeated cross-sectional data using the International Residential Assessment Instrument for Long-Term Care Facilities (interRAI LTCF) assessment collected from September 2015 to March 2023. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with loneliness in the current cohort, and chi-square analysis was used to test for changes in the prevalence of loneliness, stratified by ethnicity, over time as well as the significance of regional distribution between District Health Boards (DHB). Results In total, 494,052 records from the study period were analysed including 34,657 assessments from the most recent cohort. Of this cohort, respondents’ age group showed an inverse relationship with loneliness, females reported a higher prevalence than males, and Europeans had the highest prevalence while Pasifika had the lowest. Age group and ethnicity were also identified as predictors of loneliness in the regression model. Prevalence decreased significantly between 2016 to 2023 (7.71% vs 6.43%, p < 0.001); however, when stratified by ethnicity, only Europeans showed a significant change (7.88% vs 6.61%, p < 0.001). Differences in loneliness prevalence between DHBs were also significant (p < 0.001). Conclusions The study identified meaningful demographic and regional variation, and only the European population demonstrated a significant decline over the study period. Future research is needed to examine the effects of other confounding variables in these contexts.