Population Projections and Sustainable Development Challenges in China

The essence of population forecasting lies in the understanding and grasp of population development patterns. The ability to predict population trends scientifically has become a crucial tool for advancing the sustainable socio-economic development of a nation. Traditional studies predominantly employ mathematical models to project future population trends, yet few have endeavored to capture both the linear and nonlinear characteristics of population changes in their predictions. This study employs an ARIMA-LSTM coupling model, enhanced through Bootstrapping, to forecast the population scale and structural trends at the national, provincial, and municipal levels from 2021 to 2035.The research indicates that the population size of China will continue to show a negative growth trend in the future.By 2035, the total population will shrink to 1.314 billion, and 80.9% of the urban population will face contraction. In the future, China's population age structure will face multiple challenges such as severe aging, severe low birth rate, and contraction of the labor force size.By 2035, the proportion of people aged 65 and above will exceed 30%, the proportion of people aged 0–14 will be lower than 14%, and the proportion of the 15–64 years old working-age population will drop to around 54%.The age structure type will shift from a young growth type and a mature stable type to an unbalanced type and an aging decline type. In the future, the urban-rural structure of China's population will show a migration of the population from rural areas and small and medium-sized cities to core urban agglomerations and megacities.The net inflow of urban population and the net outflow of rural population will grow simultaneously.By 2035, the urban population will increase to 1.022 billion, and the rural population will shrink to 292 million.