Anthropogenic land-use changes rival natural drivers in contemporary sea-level rise across the Bohai and Yellow Seas

Accurate relative sea-level (RSL) projections require quantifying how natural processes and anthropogenic land-use changes evolve over space and time, but are limited by sparse vertical land motion (VLM) observations and short temporal baselines. Here, we compile a standardized, quality-controlled sea-level database spanning the past 16 ka in the Bohai and Yellow Seas and apply a spatio-temporal hierarchical model to quantify RSL change and establish a centennial- to millennial-scale geologic VLM baseline. Our reconstruction reveals peak deglacial RSL rise of 16.1 ± 2.5 mm a⁻¹ at 11.0 ± 0.2 ka, providing new constraints on the contested Meltwater Pulse 1B event. Following stabilization of barystatic sea-level rise at ~ 7 ka, late Holocene RSL changes were governed by glacial isostatic adjustment, sediment compaction and loading, and tectonics, establishing a VLM baseline of -0.7–0.3 mm a ^− 1 . In contrast, modern VLM is dominated by land-use changes (≥ 94%), with groundwater extraction and coastal development driving subsidence rates as much as 14.8 mm a⁻¹ in northern China—magnitudes rivalling those of deglacial meltwater pulse events. This shift from geological to anthropogenic control marks a new regime of coastal change, with implications for sea-level projections, climate adaptation measures, and the resilience of urbanized coastal regions worldwide.