The Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of Non-communicable Diseases Attributed to Low Physical Activity: Capturing Populations in Vulnerable Regions and Age Groups

Background With the continuous rise in low physical activity (LPA) levels globally, the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) caused by LPA has been increasing, posing a significant threat to public health. However, as a factor that can be actively improved by human intervention, the actual control effectiveness of LPA remains unsatisfactory. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of the disease burden of NCDs caused by LPA at the global, regional, national, and local levels, and to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity across gender, age, and various SDI groups. The findings are intended to provide evidence-based insights for formulating policies to improve LPA. Methods Data was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to NCDs attributable to LPA from 1990 to 2021 were assessed using Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) and percentage change. An age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to investigate spatiotemporal differences in age, period, and cohort effects across different SDI groups. Findings In 2021, the global DALYs due to NCDs caused by LPA were 15,475,981.4 (7,248,984.76 to 23,953,592.69), with an age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of 181.53 (83.95 to 280). The number of deaths was 649,308.59 (276,348.17 to 1,044,772.12), with an age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 7.89 (3.35 to 12.79). The EAPC for ASDR was -0.49 (-0.55 to -0.44), and for ASMR was -0.9 (-0.94 to -0.86). The highest numbers of DALYs and deaths at the super-regional and national levels were recorded in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania regions and China, with 5,080,821.8 (2,282,693.81 to 7,996,695.8) and 216,436.64 (92,213.73 to 366,075.14), and 3,241,988.81 (1,377,392.22 to 5,307,582.63) and 147,725.7 (56,945.8 to 263,820.53), respectively. Females experienced higher diseases burden than males. In the 25–39 age group, the risk of mortality and disability from NCDs attributable to LPA in High SDI regions has increased, exhibiting a trend toward younger age groups. This is particularly pronounced in the case of diabetic kidney disease. Conclusions This study tracks the burden of NCDs attributable to LPA across different regions and SDI levels over a 32-year period. The overall inequality in the burden primarily stems from differences in population size. Furthermore, gender disparities are evident, with females being more vulnerable to the burden of LPA-related NCDs. Additionally, the risk of NCDs, particularly diabetic kidney disease, is increasing among younger populations globally, while the rising risk of cancer is more pronounced in regions with lower SDI levels.