15-Year Stratospheric Climate Analysis: Radiosonde-Derived Atmospheric Stability Trends and Aerosol-Temperature Coupling in Central Asian Upper Atmosphere (2010--2025)

Understanding upper atmospheric trends is essential for climate science, weather prediction, and ozone layer monitoring. This study presents a rigorous 15-year comprehensive analysis of stratospheric conditions using radiosonde data from the NOAA Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) combined with satellite aerosol observations from NASA AERONET. We analyze temperature stability indices, moisture profiles, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements for the Central Asian region (2010–2025) utilizing advanced homogenization techniques (RAOBCORE/RICH methodology) to correct for instrument discontinuities and systematic biases. Results demonstrate significant atmospheric stability variation with mean Brunt-Väisälä frequency N2 = (8.32 ± 1.47) × 10−4 s−2 in the lower stratosphere, with pronounced seasonal variation (summer: 7.21 × 10−4 s−2; winter: 9.84 × 10−4 s−2). We identify strong coupling between aerosol loading (AOD range: 0.08–0.52) and tropospheric temperature (r = 0.752, p < 0.0001), suggesting aerosol-induced radiative forcing effects. Multi-dataset validation confirms results through independent comparison with ERA5 reanalysis (trend correlation r = 0.87–0.91) and MSU/AMSU satellite observations (agreement within ±0.03 K/decade). Long-term trend analysis indicates statistically significant warming in lower stratosphere (+0.18 K/decade, 95% CI: 0.08–0.28 K/decade) with multiple linear regression attribution indicating time trend contribution (+0.162 K/decade), aerosol effects (+1.24 K per 0.1 AOD), and QBO modulation (+0.45 K per 10 m/s), with combined model explaining 74% of variance. Robustness testing through rolling windows (88% positive trend sign consistency) and jackknife resampling confirms trend stability. Seasonal decomposition reveals enhanced stability during winter months, consistent with polar vortex dynamics and reduced solar heating. This study provides evidence for climate change impacts on upper atmosphere stability and demonstrates utility of integrated ground-based and satellite observations with rigorous homogenization for monitoring stratospheric changes. Results support continued investment in long-term atmospheric monitoring networks essential for climate prediction and ozone assessment.