Spatiotemporal Dynamic Patterns and Key Factors of Ecological Resilience during Urbanization: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin

Enhancing urban ecological resilience (ER) is crucial for achieving sustainable urban development. Evaluating ER from a spatial perspective is the mainstream paradigm in current related research. However, there remains a research gap in studies on the Yellow River Basin, a strategic region. Additionally, existing research has overlooked the identification of the relationship between urbanization and ER and the exploration of its evolutionary patterns. To address these limitations, this study innovatively develops a four-dimensional ER evaluation model of “size-density-morphology-function”, aiming to reveal the ER of cities in the YRB from four aspects: foundation, pressure, structure, and efficiency. It applies the four-quadrant model and traditional/spatial Markov chain models to explore the spatiotemporal evolutionary path of comprehensive urbanization (CU)-ER relations in the YRB, and combines the Optimal Parameters-based Geodetector (OPGD) and grey relational analysis (GRA) to identify key internal and external driving factors of ER. Results (2010–2022) show: (1) The CU level in the YRB showed a steady upward trend, while the urban ER generally declined. The average annual change rates were 4.03% and − 1.74% respectively, with obvious negative spatial correlation. (2) The CU-ER relationship was characterized by “imbalance dominance with coordination emergence”, with obvious path dependence and spatial spillover effects. (3) Population and economic density were core urbanization-driven factors for the spatial differentiation of ER, dominant internal factors showed scale-dependent differences: density resilience prevailed at the basin and provincial scales, and size resilience dominated at the city scale. This study is the first to clarify the evolutionary path of the CU-ER relationship and proposes differentiated policy recommendations. It provides scientific support for enhancing ER in the YRB and promoting coordinated urban-ecological development.