Predicting summer droughts in Central Europe from winter NAO

More frequent and severe droughts in Central Europe threaten water security and ecosystem resilience. The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which regulates much of Europe’s hydroclimate, increasingly drives summer drought propagation across the region. We integrated a process-based, isotope-enabled ecohydrological model with teleconnection diagnostics, reanalysis data, and drought indices. This links local-scale processes within the Soil–Plant–Atmosphere Continuum (SPAC) of a lowland catchment in the North European Plain and large-scale teleconnection patterns of the NAO. Positive winter NAO phases show a significant teleconnection with reduced summer precipitation, associated with subsequent summer drought, evident from coupled deficits in soil moisture, streamflow and groundwater, with lags of up to ten months. The recent shift in NAO–hydroclimate relationships, with weakened winter correlations but strengthened lagged summer linkages, is likely driven by climate change. This NAO – SPAC integration advances understanding of drought propagation improving prediction and resilience planning in Europe’s drought-sensitive lowlands.