Land-use management unevenly amplifies urban browning in a greening world

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Abstract

The greening of the Earth is widely attributed to biogeochemical drivers, yet the drivers of urban vegetation changes, further strongly modulated by land-use management, remain poorly understood. Here, we find that urban areas, particularly in the Global South, experience significant browning during 2000-2022, contrasting with widespread rural greening. This urban browning is primarily driven by land-use management, specifically urban expansion and human-induced degradation, with limited compensation from biogeochemical processes. Regional analysis reveals that urban expansion dominates vegetation loss in East and Southeast Asia, with nearly three times stronger impact than elsewhere. In the Americas and Africa, human-induced degradation is the major driver, exerting twice the negative influence compared to other regions. Although European cities show stronger green recovery efforts, biogeochemical drivers remain their primary greening driver due to the limited restored green space. Furthermore, high-income cities benefit more from biogeochemical enhancement and less from land-use pressures, whereas many Global South cities face severe trade-offs, with economic growth frequently coinciding with vegetation decline. These results underscore that land-use management unequally amplifies urban browning against a greening background, highlighting an urgent need for targeted land policies and sustainable development strategies to mitigate these adverse impacts, especially in the Global South.

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