Macroeconomic Drivers of Food Security in Türkiye: An Augmented ARDL Analysis

In this study, the effects of carbon emissions, GDP, inflation and capital formation on food production in Türkiye in the period 1987–2023 were examined. The starting point of the research is the necessity of ensuring Türkiye's food security under its strategic geopolitical location, its vulnerability to regional conflicts and environmental-economic pressures. In the research, the stationarity of the series was examined with unit root tests (ADF, PP and RALS-ADF), the long-term relationship was estimated with the Augmented ARDL approach and robustness checks were made with FMOLS, DOLS and CCR methods. The results show that carbon emissions and capital formation have a statistically significant negative effect on food production, while GDP makes a positive contribution to food production. In addition, inflation limits food production through cost-push pressures. The findings demonstrate that strategies to combat climate change and increase investment efficiency should be integrated into food security policies, especially for Türkiye, a major food producer in a conflict-prone region. JEL Classification: F43, F63, Q18