Conflict, Climate Shocks, and Food Insecurity: Evidence from a Dynamic Event Study Analysis

This paper examines the causal impact of conflict and rainfall variability on food insecurity at the regional level in Ethiopia and determines which factor has had a greater effect since 2020. The study utilized panel data from 2010 to 2023. It employed ordered logistic regression to analyze the relationship between conflict incidents, rainfall, and food insecurity levels, classified according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). A dynamic Event Study Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach with two-way fixed effects (TWFE) was applied to investigate the causal effect and changes in food insecurity over time. Results indicated that conflict events are positively and significantly associated with higher food insecurity levels, particularly in phases 3 (food crisis) and 4 (food famine), although the relationship is nonlinear. Additionally, rainfall and global food price fluctuations are positively related to food insecurity. The DiD analysis found that regions experiencing conflict after January 2020 had, on average, 0.63 IPC units higher, or 35% more, than regions without conflict. Similarly, regions affected by rainfall shocks experienced a 0.55-unit increase in IPC; although the overall effect was not statistically significant, it was significant in certain months. Compared to the impact of conflict, rainfall shocks have a lesser effect on food insecurity. These findings were based on a unique monthly, regionally disaggregated dataset that provides insights to support humanitarian efforts in conflict-affected and drought-prone areas. JEL Classification : C33, O13, Q18, Q54