Integrated Multi-Hazard Model for Urban Cultural Heritage Risk Management and Monitoring: Combined Hazard Susceptibility and Heritage Vulnerability

Under the combined pressures of climate change and rapid urbanization, urban cultural heritage in developing countries is increasingly exposed to compound multi-hazard risks. Yet, their spatial differentiation and formation mechanisms remain poorly understood. Using Guangzhou as a case study, this study establishes an integrated multi-hazard risk assessment framework that combines hazard susceptibility models for landslides, floods, earthquakes, and erosion with heritage vulnerability indicators. GIS-based spatial analysis was applied to map risk patterns and identify dominant driving factors. The results indicate that floods and landslides are the principal hazard drivers. The urban core exhibits a typical “high-hazard–high-exposure” configuration, while peripheral districts are characterized by “low-hazard–high-vulnerability” conditions. High-risk heritage sites are concentrated among municipal-level protected units and modern architectural types, reflecting disparities between natural constraints and governance capacity. This study demonstrates that high-resolution remote sensing and statistical datasets can support refined, low-cost risk identification under data-limited conditions, offering a replicable framework for disaster prevention and resilience-oriented management of urban cultural heritage in developing regions.