Braiding the past and present for desirable futures: Insights from the Kilimanjaro social-ecological system

Transformations toward desirable futures remain challenged by the complexity of social-ecological systems (SES), including the diverse actors’ perspectives -i.e., what they perceive as desirable futures and how to achieve them. Given that SES are also affected by multiple anthropogenic drivers of change, one-size-fits-all governing approaches fall short. Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) has proven useful in engaging actors in making sense of this complexity, although few PSP studies have been conducted in the Global South mountain SES. Therefore, we conducted three PSP workshops with smallholder farmers, business owners, and nature conservationists in the Kilimanjaro SES, Tanzania, to understand (1) which SES elements and drivers of change they perceive as characterizing the current SES conditions, (2) how they envision future scenarios based on SES dynamics and the interplay of multiple drivers, and (3) management actions toward desirable futures. Actors identified key SES elements: water resources, biodiversity, land use and agriculture, tourism, traditions and culture and drivers of change, including population growth, loss of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK), technological development and climatic change. Actors envisioned four future scenarios, in which they identified key aspects of desirable futures: environmental protection, land use and agricultural management, and cultural preservation. Proposed management actions mapped onto different levels of governance, from those requiring national commitment to those requiring local collective actions. Based on actors’ reflections on their past and present experiences and their visions of desirable futures, our conclusion is twofold: (1) desirable futures require local agency, and (2) there is a need for polycentricity in governance.