Decoding Gold Price Dynamics: Drivers, Forecasts, and Strategic Implications 2020–2025 and Beyond

Gold has exhibited a sustained and sharp rise in prices between September 2020 and September 2025, with a notable acceleration from February 2023 onwards. This study investigates the underlying drivers of this price surge, evaluates forecasting models, and derives implications for stakeholders. First, an event-driven attribution analysis identifies the relative influence of macroeconomic factors (inflation, interest rates, exchange rates), supply-side shocks (commodity constraints, geopolitical tensions), and market-specific events (investment flows, mergers, regulatory changes). Structural break tests and multivariate econometric models are applied to detect regime shifts and quantify causal relationships. Second, the study develops and compares alternative forecasting approaches, including log-linear trends, ARIMA/ETS, state-space models, and hybrid machine-learning techniques. Using rigorous backtesting and performance metrics (RMSE, MAE, MAPE), the most robust models are selected to generate five-year forecasts, presented with scenario-based confidence intervals. Finally, the study assesses the broader implications of forecast outcomes for consumers, corporates, investors, and policymakers. Risk-management strategies such as portfolio diversification, hedging instruments, and early-warning dashboards are proposed to address potential reversals or volatility spikes. By integrating attribution, forecasting, and actionable recommendations, this research contributes to both academic understanding and practical decision-making in the context of gold price dynamics.