Global Supply Chain Pressures and the Anatomy of Inflation: State-Dependent Evidence from Component-Level Local Projections

We examine the influence of global supply-chain pressures on consumer prices across various CPI components and macro-financial conditions. We use a monthly multi-country panel that is broken down into energy, food, durables, semi-durables, services, and core (without food and energy) to make horizon-specific local estimates for the next 0–24 months. Supply shocks are recognized as innovations to the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index that are independent of global activity and oil, while controlling for oil prices, a nominal effective exchange rate, policy rates, and a global activity proxy. Pass-through is clearly "tradables-first": energy and durable goods react quickly and strongly, while services and core goods change slowly and with less force. Propagation depends on the state. Pass-through becomes more pronounced in high-inflation environments, amidst significant exchange-rate volatility, and during periods of elevated global risk, aligning with imported-input and expectations channels. Results are resilient to other bottleneck measurements (inverted PMI supplier-delivery times and container-freight indices), different core definitions, inference methods, and sample trims that leave out acute stress windows. Using CPI weights to break things down indicates that tradables are what cause the initial surges in the headline number, while services and core are what cause the number to stay high. Policy implications depend on the state: early traction needs to stabilize tradables and keep FX amplification from getting too high at arrival, while medium-term disinflation needs to let non-tradables slowly return to normal without making things too tight. JEL: E31; E52; F41; C32