Climate Variability, Land Use, and Rice Production Dynamics in the Asutifi South District of Ghana

Climate change continues to reshape the boundaries of agricultural production worldwide, exerting profound effects on crop growth, water availability, and food security. In tropical Africa, rising temperatures and irregular rainfall threaten staple crops such as rice, which is highly sensitive to fluctuations in water supply and thermal stress. This study investigates the effects of seasonal temperature, rainfall variability, and cultivated area on rice yield in the Asutifi South District of Ghana over 30 years (1993–2022). Using data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency and the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, the research employed descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and multiple regression modeling to assess how climatic and management factors influence yield outcomes. The results reveal significant warming trends in both minimum and maximum temperatures, alongside increased rainfall variability. Regression analysis shows that minimum temperature positively and significantly affects yield ( β  = 0.562, p = 0.035), whereas maximum temperature has a negative but statistically weak effect ( β = −0.194, p = 0.277). Rainfall anomaly shows a positive but insignificant relationship ( β  = 0.268, p = 0.420). Cultivated area, however, exhibits a strong positive influence on yield ( β  = 0.000977, p  < 0.001), explaining 59.1% of total variation. The findings demonstrate that rice productivity in the district is more strongly driven by management and land-use factors than by moderate climatic fluctuations. The study highlights the need for climate-smart strategies that integrate efficient land management, irrigation, and adaptive agronomic practices to sustain rice production under changing climate conditions.