Change and Economic Development in Africa: Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications”

Climate change represents a major challenge for sustainable economic development in Africa. This paper provides an empirical analysis of the linkage between changing climate variables (temperature, precipitation) and economic growth (GDP growth per capita) across African countries. Using a panel dataset of 34 countries over the period 1970–2019 and applying fixed-effects and panel ARDL models, we find a statistically significant negative effect of rising mean temperature on GDP growth: a 1°C increase in annual mean temperature is associated with a reduction of approximately 0.5–1.0 percentage points in GDP growth per annum. Further, the negative effects are stronger in countries with a high share of agriculture in GDP and weaker institutional capacity. Our findings highlight the urgent need for climate adaptation policies, investment in climate-resilient infrastructure, and diversification of economic structures.