Mapping Mismanaged Plastic Waste in Indonesia: Subdistrict-level Analysis through Material Flow from Sources to the Environment

While Indonesia is a major contributor to global plastic pollution, national-level data obscures critical local hotspots where mismanagement is most severe. This study presents the comprehensive sub-district level analysis of plastic waste flows across the Indonesian to identify these hotspots and quantify their mismanagement pathways. Using a Material Flow Analysis (MFA) framework combined with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), we analyzed data from the Indonesia National Waste Management Information System (SIPSN), sampling and other governmental sources to model the fate of plastic waste. We estimate that 10.24 ± 1.01 million tons of plastic waste are generated annually. This study focuses specifically on mismanaged waste that can potentially enter to environment and leakage to waterways. While open burning is the largest single pathway (4.79 ± 0.66 million tons), this analysis concentrates on the 1.34 million tons that potentially leak into the environment. This includes 0.74 ± 0.11 million tons dumped directly into rivers and drains, moreover 0.60 ± 0.09 million tons dumped illegally onto land. The analysis also reveals the critical role of the informal sector, which recovers nearly five times more plastic than formal facilities do (10.83% vs. 2.35%).