The supply-demand dynamics of lithium resources and sustainable pathways for vehicle electrification in China

Lithium is a critical component for traction batteries and plays a key role in advancing vehicle electrification for low carbon transportation. Forecasting lithium supply-demand dynamics of electric vehicles is essential for developing sustainable utilization strategies. This study develops an integrated lithium forecast model incorporating multiple influencing factors by combining an SD-based model with dynamic MFA and scenario analysis methods. Using the model, this study simulates China’s lithium demand dynamics during 2025–2035 and the impact of various factors on the demand, as well as the potential in reducing the lithium supply-demand gap. The results show that China’s EV stocks and annual demand will grow significantly by 8.3 and 3.4 times during 2024–2035 under the baseline scenario. The expansion will drive a substantial rise in annual lithium demand, reaching 252 kt in 2035, a 4.7-fold increase from 2024. Cumulatively, lithium demand will represent 50–71% of China’s domestic lithium reserves by 2035, presenting a critical challenge in securing sufficient lithium supply. Moreover, a persistent supply-demand gap is anticipated, stabilizing at 110–120 kt/yr by 2035, underscoring China’s growing reliance on imported lithium resources. The study also reveals that strategic interventions can help mitigate this gap. Technology-driven scenarios, such as improving battery energy density and lifespan can reduce lithium demand by up to 18.9%, while enhancing recycling efforts could reduce lithium supply-demand gap by 39%. This study contributes by providing an integrated lithium forecast model incorporating multiple influencing factors and offering a scientific basis for developing sustainable lithium management strategies.