Climate risks to port infrastructure for future global trade

With maritime trade expected to grow significantly by 2050, substantial new port infrastructure investments are required. Uncertain climatic changes and trade forecasts over this time frame challenge the design and financing of these investments. Here, using a new model of port expansions at 1350 ports, we predict that by 2050 an additional 1353–5735 km ² of port terminals will be needed. We further predict that climate risks to ports will grow from 6.5 USD billion per year at present to 16.0-37.4 USD billion per year at the mid-century due to climate change and increased trade and infrastructure exposure, and 27.9-137.7 USD billion per year at the end-century. We find the largest planning uncertainties in Sub-Saharan Africa, India and South-East Asia, which are also areas with the largest planned investment. Our results highlight the need to embed uncertainties in infrastructure planning to manage investment risks proactively while adapting to a changing climate.