Technological Dependency and the Dialectics of Unequal Development in Morocco: A Markov-Switching Analysis in the Autocentric Growth Dilemma Age

This paper interrogates the profound dialectic unfolding between the ascendant technological superstructure and the persistent structures of social inequality within the peripheral economies of the Global South. Moving beyond the Panglossian narratives of technological determinism, we posit that the digital revolution, far from being a panacea for development, operates as a potent amplifier of pre-existing contradictions inherent in the heterogeneous modes of production characteristic of dependent capitalism. Through a critical resurrection and operationalization of Samir Amin’s seminal framework, specifically his concepts of unequal exchange, economic extraversion, and the development of underdevelopment, this analysis dissects the mechanisms by which technological adoption, when uncoupled from a radical reconfiguration of social production relations, systematically reinforces centre-periphery asymmetries. The methodological approach embraces this structural complexity by employing a Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) model, an econometric formalism uniquely suited to capturing the non-linear, regime-dependent dynamics of a peripheral economy such as Morocco. The empirical architecture reveals a tragic paradox: quantitative advances in technological export intensity coexist with a deepening qualitative dependency and negative specialization, a configuration that perfectly embodies the Aminian prophecy. The results further illuminate the schizophrenic character of key variables; technological reliance and financialization exhibit profoundly bifurcated impacts, oscillating between contingent advantage and developmental constraint across distinct economic regimes, thereby crystallizing a state of stable instability. In conclusion, this study argues that the contemporary trajectory of peripheral development is not one of linear convergence but of a choreographed dance of constrained modernization. The superior performance of this model, which delineates a "dependent duality" between financialized extraversion and fragile autocentrism, demands a radical re-imagination of development strategy. The path forward cannot be a simplistic choice between integration and delinking, but must involve a sophisticated, state-orchestrated navigation of the global economy, leveraging moments of extraversion to build the endogenous technological sovereignty required for a genuine, auto-centric structural transformation. JEL code: O33, F63, O14, P16 , D63